“I’m not scared of parliament,” the 53-year-old known as Jokowi told reporters on Oct. 9, flashing his trademark wide grin. “That’s politics. It can change every second, minute and hour.”
A leader who got his political start outside the major parties, Jokowi has outlined an ambitious agenda to lift Southeast Asia’s largest economy, an archipelago of more than 240 million people ranging from followers of animism to supporters of extreme Islam. The opposition group -- with a two thirds majority and led by losing presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto -- holds the senior roles in the legislature and has voted to abolish direct elections at a regional level.
That has raised concerns that Jokowi’s pledge to raise fuel prices and tackle corruption in a young democracy still emerging from the era of dictator Suharto could fall victim to legislative gridlock. With Indonesian growth at the slowest since 2009 and the current account at a near-record gap, foreign funds have pulled about $900 million from stocks in the past month.
Still, Jokowi has an electoral mandate on his side, having been sworn in today, has the ability to bypass parliament and implement policies by decree. Prabowo had vowed previously to harass Jokowi in parliament, though at a briefing on Oct. 17 with Jokowi by his side said he’d support the government on policies he viewed as beneficial to the nation.
Indonesia's seventh President Joko Widodo waves as he leaves Parliament following his inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, Monday, Oct. 20, 2014. - AP Photo/Mark Baker
Trump Card
Jokowi is yet to announce his cabinet and, despite a pledge to avoid horse-trading, may find himself using the lure of posts to bring opposition lawmakers into the fold. Wearing a suit and red tie at his inauguration today he described Prabowo as a friend and partner.
“Looking at Jokowi’s behavior, he seems to have a trump card that we don’t know about,” said Kuskridho Ambardi, a political analyst at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta and the co-author of “People’s Power,” a book about voting behavior in Indonesia. “He looks happy. He doesn’t look very worried.”
“He has ample power within the presidency to achieve reforms, using presidential powers, the civil service, state enterprises and statutes that are already in place but not implemented,” said Kevin O’Rourke, a political analyst and author of “Reformasi: The Struggle for Power in Post-Soeharto Indonesia.”
The opposition, known as the Red-White coalition, has held together through the post-election period, a time when loyalties often shift to the victorious side in exchange for cabinet positions or government posts.
‘Not Possible’
“Since the beginning I have said we are open to anyone,” Jokowi said last month in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Those who would like to cooperate, please do so, and those who don’t, no problem.”
Having risen from mayor of Solo to Jakarta governor, and then riding a popular wave to become president, Jokowi, who has been compared to U.S. President Barack Obama and India’s leader Narendra Modi, said expectations of him are too high and should be managed.
“All is not possible in a short time,” he said in the interview.
His campaign pledges to cut red tape and boost infrastructure sent markets rallying this year on hopes he would apply his commonsense approach to getting things done at a national level. That euphoria has been replaced by unease over his inexperience in navigating the complexities of the parties that dominate parliament and the vested interests that run alongside those parties.
Commodity Dependence
Jokowi inherits an economy that expanded at an average of almost 6 percent a year during the Yudhoyono era because of a commodity boom, yet is now coming under stress as prices for exports such as palm oil, coal and gas fall while a growing middle class spurs demand for imported goods. Policy makers have failed to make use of the good times to overhaul roads and ports and wean the country off its commodity dependence.
The excitement around Jokowi has turned to a “wait-and- see” approach, said Juniman, chief economist at Bank Internasional Indonesia in Jakarta, who goes by one name.
“Jokowi and JK, like it or not, will have to intensively communicate with parliament, while building good collaboration within their coalition,” said Juniman, referring to Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla, who became vice president today. “If not, it will be difficult.”
Jokowi as president controls the police and security forces, the attorney general and anti-graft agency, said Fauzi Ichsan, a finance adviser to the leader’s team.
A view of the city skyline of Jakarta, Indonesia,, 05 May 2014. - EPA/MAST IRHAM
Cabinet Seats
“He will have a lot of sticks to threaten with,” Ichsan said, adding Jokowi will need to offer cabinet seats to opposition party members to break up their coalition. “I’m convinced that within six months he will have half of the parliament.”
Jokowi can proceed with his plans to cut red tape, introduce a national health card and raise fuel prices this year without parliament, Ichsan said. Once the subsidy cuts have created budget savings, he will need parliament to approve his plans to spend the money, he said.
“I am optimistic in this case that despite the parliament may present strong opposition, that our chosen president can eventually drum up support for his policies,” said Akbar Syarief, a fund manager at PT MNC Asset Management in Jakarta who oversees $180 million. “Jokowi may be more willing to work with many parties and that can earn him stronger support.”
Jokowi has spent the past week meeting opposition party leaders, holding a closed-door chat Oct. 14. with Aburizal Bakrie, the leader of the largest opposition party, Golkar, and with Prabowo three days later.
‘No Problem’
“We want to show to the people, the business world, investment world that actually there is no problem between us,” he said after meeting Bakrie. The party of Suharto, Golkar has never been in opposition before and finished second to Jokowi’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, in the last legislative election.
Bakrie said his party and Jokowi’s administration would be “best friends with different positions.” Jokowi said Bakrie told him Golkar, with its 91 seats in parliament, would stay in opposition.
Prabowo, the former son-in-law of Suharto, launched a failed court challenge against the presidential poll results and had refused to concede defeat. After their meeting, he said he had congratulated Jokowi.
Supporter, Critic
“I will ask the party that I lead and my followers to support the government that he will lead,” Prabowo said. “If there are any issues that are not beneficial to this nation or not suitable for the people, we will not be reluctant to ask for a correction and I will give criticism.”
Jokowi has met with outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the leader of the Democrat Party, which is part of the Red-White coalition. He has spoken to leaders of the United Development Party, or PPP.
Even if the opposition alliance holds there is no reason to believe parties will vote as one on policy, said Maswadi Rauf, a political science professor at the University of Indonesia.
“When they talk about programs and legislation, there is the possibility of internal differences in the coalition,” Maswadi said. “That will cause shifts that can change the balance of power.”
Golkar will hold a party conference next year, and Maswadi said the focus will be whether Bakrie is replaced. Some in the party are close to Kalla, a Golkar member, and some don’t believe the party should be in opposition.
Power Swing
“The desire to join the government, it is indeed a strong desire,” he said. “That is why those who want to join the government’s coalition are scrambling to do the conference immediately to replace Bakrie.”
Next year could see “a very different political landscape from what we see now,” said Marcus Mietzner, associate professor at the Australian National University in Canberra and author of “Money, Power and Ideology: Political Parties in Post-Authoritarian Indonesia.”
“The current situation seems dramatic because everyone focuses on the spoils to be distributed in the legislature,” he said. “The pendulum of power will swing towards Jokowi after 20 October.”
