A confident Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Musa Aman, hailed for the state's sound financial management and state Barisan Nasional (BN) supremacy in the 2008 general election, is once again expected to spearhead the coalition in the coming polls against a disunited opposition in the state.

Firing the first salvo after the dissolution of the Dewan Rakyat and the Sabah Legislative Assembly yesterday, Musa, who is also the state BN chairman, called on the people of Sabah not to gamble away their future by experimenting with an opposition government.

"Think wisely before making a decision, and don't gamble away the future of our children and the country," Musa was quoted as saying.

The charismatic Musa led the state BN to a thumping victory in the last general election, capturing 24 of the 25 parliamentary seats and 59 of the 60 state seats, leaving the DAP with the Kota Kinabalu parliamentary and Sri Tanjung (Tawau) state seats.

With negotiations for a possible one-to-one contest or showdown between the BN and a united opposition front in Sabah making no headway, the BN is now in a better position to deliver another double political knockout to its opponents in both the parliamentary and state elections.

The seeds of disunity began to appear within the opposition when Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim announced here recently that Pakatan Rakyat would face the BN on its own without the support of the state-based parties in the coming general election in Sabah.

This did not go down well with the leaders of the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), a local party that left the BN on Sept 17, 2008, which had been hoping for a strategic alliance to face the mighty BN election machinery.

In what is seen as a blow for the opposition, SAPP secretary-general Datuk Richard Yong had subsequently described Anwar's announcement as implying that "PR is over-confident".

They hold themselves so high that there is no need for cooperation from Sabah parties to campaign against the Barisan Nasional. They have ignored the peoples aspiration for the opposition to go one-to-one against the BN in the coming election, Yong was quoted as saying.

Adding salt to the wound, State Reform Party (Star) Sabah Chapter chairman Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan confirmed joining the fray, and expects his party to be involved in contests of three-corner or more in most of the parliamentary and state seats.

Short of saying that it might further split the opposition votes and give the advantage to the ruling party, Jeffrey said "every political party is free to field a candidate in elections as it is in line with the principle of democracy as practised in Malaysia".

A political analyst, Salman Nurillah, said that based on the prevailing political scenario in the state, with the split and disunity among the opposition parties, the BN seemed to have the upper hand to rule the state for another five years.

Salman, a former civil servant with a law degree from Universiti Malaya and a Master's degree from UiTM, said that with the SAPP and the STAR joining the fray with special focus on the issue of the Borneo Autonomous agenda, this would surely be a boost for the BN to repeat its feat of the 12th general election.

"Advantage is definitely on the BN side because, in the political arena, whenever there is a split or disunity among the opposition, the ruling party will always get the benefit," he said.

Citing the results of the 2008 general election for the state seats of Likas, Kepayan and Inanam in Sabah, Salman said the split opposition votes gave victory to the BN.

"I believe things like this will happen again in the coming general election," he said, adding that either Pakatan Rakyat or SAPP or even STAR candidates would turn out to be the spoiler for the opposition votes one way or another.

Another factor that gives the advantage to the ruling party is the BN government's seriousness in handling the security issue, particularly the terrorist intrusion in Lahad Datu.

"I feel it is a 'blessing in disguise' from the security point of view which was previously taken for granted.

"With the government's decision to increase the security personnel to guard the sovereignty of the state, particularly in the east coast as well as the implementation of the Eastern Sabah Security Command (ESSCOM), it brings out the confidence of the people, especially voters, in the government.

"They feel safe as security is under control and are convinced of the government's concerted efforts to avoid similar incidents in the future," he added.

Salman said the feel good factor towards the good administration of the Sabah government under Musa, especially in bringing about development in all aspects for the people and the acceptance of the new transformation policy implemented by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, the brainchild of the 1Malaysia concept, would also contribute to the BN's victory in the polls.

He concurred with the statements by former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and former Finance Minister Tun Daim Zainuddin that Najib had done a lot for the BN and the country as the prime minister in terms of political and economic transformation since he took over the helm.

However, Salman predicted that the BN would face a tough time to recapture the DAP-controlled areas of Kota Kinabalu and Sri Tanjung as well as face a strong challenge from the opposition in the urban and suburban areas.

He said these included the parliamentary seats of Sandakan, Tawau, Beaufort, Tuaran, Penampang, Sepanggar and Pensiangan.

"Of course, with proper selection of the so-called 'winnable candidates', the Barisan Nasional will be able subdue the opposition in these areas," he said.